By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina’s economy likely grew 6.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, posting a third consecutive quarter of expansion after a downturn in Q3 2024, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll.
The poll of 18 local and international analysts showed a similar mean forecast of 6.4% for the April-June period for Latin America’s third-largest economy, with estimates ranging from 4.2% to 7.5%.
Despite the positive reading, analysts cautioned that the economy continues to face headwinds, particularly in domestic consumption and industrial output.
“The economy is struggling to consolidate its recovery and maintain a growth path, especially in sectors linked to consumption and industry,” said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director of VDC Consulting.
The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE), a proxy for GDP, has shown year-on-year gains in 2025, though seasonally adjusted figures have recently turned negative.
“High interest rates are impacting the economy’s growth curve, especially with companies suffering from the rising financial costs,” Besmedrisnik added.
Moody’s said in a previous report that growth in 2025–2026 is reversing the prior downturn, driven by stronger exports, improved confidence, and a rebound in key sectors. However, it said that structural challenges remain and could weigh on long-term growth.
The Argentine central bank, in its latest market expectations survey (REM), forecasts GDP to grow 4.4% in 2025.
Statistics agency INDEC will publish GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 on Wednesday afternoon (1900 GMT).
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Editing by Will Dunham)
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